Skip to content
PronoData
LigaEspagne
Real Sociedad
0 - 3Final score
Atlético Madrid

Real Sociedad vs Atlético Madrid: AI analysis

Value 1 +4,6 %Void

Analyses are for information only and do not guarantee any result.

AI probabilities

36 %RSO
26 %Draw
38 %ATM
RSO win36 %Fair odds 2.81
Draw26 %Fair odds 3.82
ATM win38 %Fair odds 2.62

Confidence level

7.9/ 10

Moderate score: the signals point the same way but some indicators are missing or diverge. Read with caution.

Value detected on 1 · RSO: +4,6 % at odds of 2.94 (fair odds 2.81).

Odds

Bookmaker odds compared with the model's fair odds
OutcomeBookmaker oddsFair oddsImplied prob.Model prob.Edge
1 · RSO Value2.942.8134,0 %36 %+5,8 %
X · Draw3.603.8227,8 %26 %-6,4 %
2 · ATM2.402.6241,7 %38 %-8,8 %

Fair odds = 1 / model probability. Edge = (bookmaker odds × model probability) − 1. A positive edge means the odds are higher than the model's estimate.

Odds movement · 1 · RSO

Data unavailable

Data

Match statistics

The data used by the model. Unavailable data is shown as such, never replaced by an estimate.

Recent form

Real Sociedad2W 1D 2L
Atlético Madrid2W 1D 2L

Key: W win, D draw, L loss. Last five matches, oldest to most recent.

Home / Away

Real Sociedad
1W 1D 0L at home
Atlético Madrid
1W 0D 1L away

Head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: 0 Real Sociedad win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Atlético Madrid win(s)

Goals scored

Average per match.

Goals conceded

Average per match.

Expected goals (xG)

Data unavailable

Average xG per match.

Absentees

Data not available

AI analysis

What the model says

The model expects 1.8 goals for Real Sociedad and 1.5 for Atlético Madrid. It gives Real Sociedad a 36% chance, the draw 26% and Atlético Madrid 38%, blending its own estimate (45% / 23% / 32%) with the de-vigged market probabilities (33% / 27% / 40%). Recent form: Real Sociedad L-L-W-D-W, 1.2 scored and 1.6 conceded per game; Atlético Madrid L-W-D-W-L, 1.8 scored and 1.5 conceded. Last 4 meetings: 0 Real Sociedad win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Atlético Madrid win(s). The most favourable gap is on a Real Sociedad win (5% estimated value), below our 6% threshold: no tracked bet on this match. Expected total goals: 3.2 (over 2.5 at 63%, both teams to score at 64%).

Scenarios

Possible scenarios

  1. 1

    Most likely scenario (38%): Atlético Madrid control the game and win, in an open match with goals at both ends.

  2. 2

    Draw scenario (26%): the two sides cancel each other out; an outcome not to dismiss.

  3. 3

    Upset scenario (36%): Real Sociedad capitalise on an early goal or a weak spell from Atlético Madrid.

Compute my stake for this bet

The calculator will be pre-filled with odds of 2.94 and the 36 % probability of outcome 1 · RSO. You set your bankroll and strategy.

Analyses are for information only and do not guarantee any result.

Sports betting involves a risk of financial loss. For adults only.

Compute my stake Back to the dashboard

View the public track record of all settled analyses.