Venezia vs Lazio: AI analysis
Analyses are for information only and do not guarantee any result.
AI probabilities
Confidence level
High score: the available signals (form, odds, statistics) clearly converge. This qualifies the consistency of the analysis, not a probability of winning.
Odds
Odds movement · 2 · LAZ
Bookmaker odds for outcome 2 over 2 readings: from 1.97 to 1.97.
Expected goals
The match in goals
Goal expectations fitted to the final probabilities (1X2 and over/under 2.5), then turned into markets that are consistent with one another. The fair price has no margin: any higher price is value.
Most likely correct scores
Each cell shows the probability of that score (rows VEN, columns LAZ). Beyond 5 goals per team: 1.2%.
Expected goals
Expected total: 2.8 goalsDerived markets
| Market | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | 1.32 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 1.89 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47% | 2.12 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | 3.26 |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 1.85 |
| VEN keep a clean sheet | 19% | 5.21 |
| LAZ keep a clean sheet | 32% | 3.13 |
| VEN win by 2+ goals | 10% | 9.62 |
| LAZ win by 2+ goals | 26% | 3.85 |
Market consensus versus team model
The corrected consensus is our reference probability. The team model (goals and shots on target, time weighted) is a second opinion.
The team model and the market agree within 4 points: the reading of the match is stable.
Over / under 2.5 goals
| Market | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 1.87 | 1.80 | -3,7 % |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47% | 2.15 | 2.05 | -4,7 % |
Shots on target per game
- Venezia
- 4.0 for7.0 against
- Lazio
- 4.3 for4.8 against
Data
Match statistics
The data used by the model. Unavailable data is shown as such, never replaced by an estimate.
Recent form
Key: W win, D draw, L loss. Last five matches, oldest to most recent.
Home / Away
- Venezia
- 0W 0D 2L at home
- Lazio
- 2W 0D 0L away
Head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: 0 Venezia win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Lazio win(s)
Goals scored
Average per match.
Goals conceded
Average per match.
Expected goals (xG)
Data unavailable
Average xG per match.
Absentees
Data not available
AI analysis
What the model says
Prono Data probabilities: 25% for Venezia, 26% for the draw, 49% for Lazio. They come from the bookmaker consensus with the margin removed and the favourite / longshot bias corrected: the best calibrated reference in our tests. Expected goals: 1.1 for Venezia, 1.7 for Lazio. Most likely scores: 0-1 (11%), 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%). Over 2.5 goals at 53%, both teams to score at 54%. As a second opinion, our team model (goals and shots on target, time weighted) gives 26% / 22% / 52%. It is in line with the market on this match. Recent form: Venezia L-L-L-L-L, 1.0 scored and 2.8 conceded per game, 4.0 shots on target; Lazio W-W-W-W-D, 1.5 scored and 0.8 conceded, 4.3 shots on target. Last 2 meetings: 0 Venezia win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Lazio win(s). No price beats the fair price by at least 2.5%: no tracked bet on this match. The favourite is a Lazio win.
Scenarios
Possible scenarios
- 1
Most likely scenario (49%): Lazio control the game and win, without necessarily many goals.
- 2
Draw scenario (26%): the two sides cancel each other out; an outcome not to dismiss.
- 3
Upset scenario (25%): Venezia capitalise on an early goal or a weak spell from Lazio.
Compute my stake for this bet
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