Brest vs Paris Saint-Germain: AI analysis, probabilities and value

Ligue 1France13 Sept, 18:45

Brest

0 - 1Final score

Paris Saint-Germain

Value 1 +51,8 %Void

Analyses are for information only and do not guarantee any result.

AI probabilities

12 %SB29

18 %Draw

70 %PSG

SB29 win12 %Fair odds 8.23

Draw18 %Fair odds 5.70

PSG win70 %Fair odds 1.42

Confidence level

6.0/ 10

Moderate score: the signals point the same way but some indicators are missing or diverge. Read with caution.

Value detected on 1 · SB29: +51,8 % at odds of 12.50 (fair odds 8.23).

Odds

Bookmaker odds compared with the model's fair odds
Outcome	Bookmaker odds	Fair odds	Implied prob.	Model prob.	Edge
1 · SB29 Value	12.50	8.23	8,0 %	12 %	+50,0 %
X · Draw	6.50	5.70	15,4 %	18 %	+17,0 %
2 · PSG	1.29	1.42	77,5 %	70 %	-9,7 %

Fair odds = 1 / model probability. Edge = (bookmaker odds × model probability) − 1. A positive edge means the odds are higher than the model's estimate.

Odds movement · 1 · SB29

Data unavailable

Data

Match statistics

The data used by the model. Unavailable data is shown as such, never replaced by an estimate.

Recent form

Brest1W 3D 1L

Paris Saint-Germain1W 2D 2L

Key: W win, D draw, L loss. Last five matches, oldest to most recent.

Home / Away

Brest: 0W 1D 0L at home
Paris Saint-Germain: 0W 2D 0L away

Head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: 0 Brest win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Paris Saint-Germain win(s)

Goals scored

1.3

SB29

2.0

PSG

Average per match.

Goals conceded

1.7

SB29

1.1

PSG

Average per match.

Expected goals (xG)

Data unavailable

Average xG per match.

Absentees

Data not available

AI analysis

What the model says

The model expects 1.2 goals for Brest and 2.0 for Paris Saint-Germain. It gives Brest a 12% chance, the draw 18% and Paris Saint-Germain 70%, blending its own estimate (23% / 24% / 53%) with the de-vigged market probabilities (9% / 16% / 75%). Recent form: Brest L-D-D-D-W, 1.3 scored and 1.7 conceded per game; Paris Saint-Germain W-L-D-D-L, 2.0 scored and 1.1 conceded. Last 4 meetings: 0 Brest win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Paris Saint-Germain win(s). The most favourable gap is on a Brest win (52% estimated value), but that outcome remains too unlikely (under 20%) for a tracked bet. Expected total goals: 3.2 (over 2.5 at 62%, both teams to score at 62%).

Scenarios

Possible scenarios

1
Most likely scenario (70%): Paris Saint-Germain control the game and win, in an open match with goals at both ends.
2
Draw scenario (18%): the two sides cancel each other out; an outcome not to dismiss.
3
Upset scenario (12%): Brest capitalise on an early goal or a weak spell from Paris Saint-Germain.

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