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Premier LeagueAngleterre
Leeds
4 - 1Final score
Newcastle

Leeds vs Newcastle: AI analysis

Void

Analyses are for information only and do not guarantee any result.

AI probabilities

40 %LEE
28 %Draw
32 %NEW
LEE win40 %Fair odds 2.48
Draw28 %Fair odds 3.62
NEW win32 %Fair odds 3.12

Confidence level

8.4/ 10

High score: the available signals (form, odds, statistics) clearly converge. This qualifies the consistency of the analysis, not a probability of winning.

Odds

Bookmaker odds compared with the model's fair odds
OutcomeBookmaker oddsFair oddsImplied prob.Model prob.Edge
1 · LEE2.502.4840,0 %40 %0,0 %
X · Draw3.603.6227,8 %28 %+0,8 %
2 · NEW2.883.1234,7 %32 %-7,8 %

Fair odds = 1 / model probability. Edge = (bookmaker odds × model probability) − 1. A positive edge means the odds are higher than the model's estimate.

Odds movement · 1 · LEE

Data unavailable

Data

Match statistics

The data used by the model. Unavailable data is shown as such, never replaced by an estimate.

Recent form

Leeds2W 2D 1L
Newcastle2W 2D 1L

Key: W win, D draw, L loss. Last five matches, oldest to most recent.

Home / Away

Leeds
0W 1D 0L at home
Newcastle
1W 0D 0L away

Head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: 0 Leeds win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Newcastle win(s)

Goals scored

Average per match.

Goals conceded

Average per match.

Expected goals (xG)

Data unavailable

Average xG per match.

Absentees

Data not available

AI analysis

What the model says

The model expects 1.5 goals for Leeds and 1.1 for Newcastle. It gives Leeds a 40% chance, the draw 28% and Newcastle 32%, blending its own estimate (44% / 30% / 27%) with the de-vigged market probabilities (39% / 27% / 33%). Recent form: Leeds W-L-W-D-D, 1.1 scored and 0.9 conceded per game; Newcastle W-L-D-W-D, 1.5 scored and 1.5 conceded. Last 2 meetings: 0 Leeds win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Newcastle win(s). The most favourable gap is on a Leeds win (1% estimated value), below our 6% threshold: no tracked bet on this match. Expected total goals: 2.6 (over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 53%).

Scenarios

Possible scenarios

  1. 1

    Most likely scenario (40%): Leeds control the game and win, without necessarily many goals.

  2. 2

    Draw scenario (28%): the two sides cancel each other out; an outcome not to dismiss.

  3. 3

    Upset scenario (32%): Newcastle capitalise on an early goal or a weak spell from Leeds.

Compute my stake for this bet

The calculator will be pre-filled with odds of 2.50 and the 40 % probability of outcome 1 · LEE. You set your bankroll and strategy.

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